The Market Research Society of India (MRSI) held its first Wednesday Webinar of the seventh season on 24th January 2024, on the topic of “The Art And Science Of Psephology”. The session was hosted by Amitabh Mishra, Head-Insights and Analytics - India, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories; Sunder Muthuraman, CEO - SL Ventures, (Marketing ROI Consulting); Mukul Gautam, VP & Chief Of Capacity Building, Purple Audacity; and Jayesh K Menon, Global Director Insights, Entropik Tech, including speakers Girish Upadhyay, Chief Marketing Officer, Axis My India; Parijat Chakraborty, India Lead - Public Affairs, Corporate Reputation, ESG, CSR, Ipsos India and Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder-Director, C-Voter. The session aimed to provide insights into the nuanced realm of political opinions, shaping public perception.
The discussion commenced with an exploration of political polling, dissecting its types, and distinguishing between Opinion Polls and Exit Polls. The webinar took attendees on a journey to comprehend the role these polls play in shaping public opinion, demystifying the complexities involved.
Speaking on branches of psephology Parijat Chakraborty, India Lead - Public Affairs, Corporate Reputation, ESG, CSR, Ipsos India said, “It is a hardcore science, a combination of different streams such as behavioral science, psychology, and technology. Analyzing complex data integration as a single methodology falls short in terms of covering the entire population, sets of answers, and the biases that one can encounter. Multimodal is the trend that brings complex data integration. There is one layer of art in terms of deciding which science to use for which purpose.”
Speaking on methods and techniques used in political polling and exit polling, Girish Upadhyay, Chief Marketing Officer, Axis My India said, “There are three fundamentals when it comes to election forecasting. The first and foremost fundamental is reaching the right audience. Given the diversity in India, sampling is crucial, considering factors such as geography, cost, gender, age, and occupation. The main goal is to obtain a sample that accurately represents the voting population of the state or the nation. The other two fundamentals involve connecting with the audience and understanding the complexity, needs, likes, and dislikes of the individual.”
Further discussing election polling, he added, “There are two key factors: vote share and seat share. Results are often promptly analyzed in terms of vote share, where the party securing the majority of votes is assumed to win the majority of seats. However, this is not always the case, and differences may arise when the vote share does not translate into seat victories.”
Further enlightening on Girish’s views, Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder-Director, C-Voter, added, “If one gets to poll in all the seats and each seat has a two-horse race, that is pretty much an art and science that increases the chance of getting not just a vote share but also seat share. As we grow as a democracy and make the art and science of psephology more common, demystify it, and look at it from a researcher's perspective, a lot can be achieved. This is a growing science, and we are a budding democracy.”
Speaking on the difference between national and state elections in India, Parijat Chakraborty said, “State elections are relatively easier because the number of variables is lesser, and the magnitude of the challenge is also lower. There is some relief from mega complexities. The magnitude could be higher at the central level and relatively lower at the state.”
Furthermore, Yashwant Deshmukh added, “We don’t have the concept of a uniform national swing. In the UK, you can do a national sample and then apply a uniform swing across all the seats, which would work. The problem with India's heterogeneity is that you cannot apply Tamil Nadu swing to Bengal, Bengal swing to Maharashtra; that is the enormous challenge.”
The speakers shared valuable insights into the methods, dynamics, and cultural nuances shaping the world of political opinions, leaving them well-equipped to navigate this intricate blend of art and science.
To watch the recorded session, click
here.